Honeywell Forecasts Business Aviation Growth Through 2035

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Honeywell Aerospace published its 35th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, forecasting continued growth in the business aviation sector over the next decade as aircraft deliveries rise, fleet sizes expand and operators increase the hours they fly their aircraft. The forecast reflects an industry that has evolved beyond traditional ownership models, with charter, managed fleets and fractional operators driving a growing share of activity while helping business aviation remain remarkably resilient amid economic uncertainty, geopolitical volatility and energy-market disruptions.

In contrast to all previous reports, this year Honeywell Aerospace is broadening the scope of its forecast to encompass additional segments of Business Aviation, including turboprops and personal jets.

Key findings in the 2026 Honeywell Aerospace Global Business Aviation Outlook include:

• Approximately 14,000 total business aircraft deliveries from 2026 through 2035 with 9,950 business jet deliveries and 4,200 turboprop deliveries.
• The global business aviation fleet is projected to expand by approximately 29% in the next decade — growing from about 39,400 aircraft in 2025 to nearly 51,000 in 2035.
• Global business aviation flight hours are expected to increase approximately 34% over the next decade, reflecting both fleet growth and increasing utilization, particularly among charter and fractional operators.
• In the near term, 9 of 10 operators say they will fly the same or more hours in 2027 compared with 2026.

Fleet growth driven by expansion rather than replacement

Honeywell Aerospace forecasts steady growth in new aircraft deliveries across all major aircraft classes during the next decade. Annual deliveries are expected to increase from approximately 1,280 aircraft in 2026 to more than 1,500 aircraft by 2035, while the value of new aircraft delivered is projected to exceed $37 billion annually by the end of the forecast period. This new aircraft delivery forecast is 4.4% higher than last year’s forecast.

Large-cabin aircraft will continue to represent the largest share of industry value, while midsize jets are positioned to deliver some of the strongest growth rates as operators seek a balance of aircraft performance, cabin comfort and operating economics. Midsize jets are forecast to pace fleet expansion, followed by large-cabin aircraft, as operators increasingly prioritize flexibility and longer-range capabilities.

By 2035, Honeywell Aerospace expects the global fleet to include approximately 18,000 turboprops, 15,000 light jets, 8,200 midsize jets and 9,700 large-cabin aircraft. Midsize jets are expected to grow 40% over the forecast period, outpacing all other segments and reflecting continuing demand for aircraft that offer intercontinental capability without the acquisition and operating costs associated with the largest aircraft classes.

More importantly, Honeywell Aerospace's analysis indicates the industry is approaching a pivotal inflection point: sustained increases in annual aircraft deliveries coupled with low retirement rates are driving an acceleration in global fleet expansion. The resulting growth in fleet size is expected to support increasing demand for maintenance, upgrades, and other support services across the industry's installed base.

Higher utilization creates even faster growth in flight activity

While fleet expansion remains an important industry growth driver, Honeywell Aerospace's outlook suggests utilization trends may be an even more powerful force. Business aviation is increasingly shifting toward operating models that maximize aircraft use, enabling flight activity to grow faster than the underlying fleet.

Private operators continue to represent the majority of aircraft ownership globally, particularly among turboprops and light jets. However, charter and fractional operators employing a larger portion of midsize and large jets account for a disproportionate share of industry flying because their aircraft are utilized at far greater rates.

The rapid growth of shared-use models is reshaping industry dynamics. Fractional ownership -- once concentrated in specific regions -- is becoming an increasingly important component of the broader business aviation ecosystem. Managed fleets and charter operators are also helping unlock unused aircraft capacity while broadening access to business aviation for individuals and organizations seeking operational flexibility.

As a result, total industry flight hours are projected to increase approximately 34% between 2025 and 2035, outpacing fleet growth during the same period.

Operators expect strong flight activity through 2027

Business aviation demand remains fundamentally supported by a positive macroeconomic outlook as well as the productivity, flexibility, privacy and time-saving advantages the sector provides. Even as economic and geopolitical conditions evolve, operators continue to view business aviation as a critical business tool rather than a discretionary expense.

Recent flight activity data and operator survey responses indicate that the positive momentum established in recent years is expected to continue. Business jet activity remains above historical norms, posting +4% growth in flight hours year-to-date compared with the same timeframe last year.

The most positive outlook comes from operators of midsize and large-cabin aircraft, where demand for longer-range travel and premium business transportation continues to increase. Large-cabin and midsize jets are posting particularly strong year-over-year flight hour growth during 2026 at +5% and +7%, respectively.

Honeywell Aerospace's survey findings show that nearly one-third of operators expect to increase flight activity in 2027, reflecting a positive sentiment among operators for the year to come. This is a 4 percentage point increase over the portion of operators who had the same positive sentiment in 2026.

Regional Outlook

U.S. & Canada

The U.S. remains the center of global business aviation activity and continues to set the pace for industry growth worldwide. The U.S. and Canada account for approximately 63% of global deliveries and fleet size, while generating nearly 68% of worldwide business aviation flight hours.

Strong economic fundamentals, a growing high-net-worth population, extensive airport infrastructure and a supportive regulatory environment continue to sustain demand. The region has also become the global leader in shared-use operating models, particularly fractional ownership. Today, approximately 83% of global fractional flight activity originates from airports in the U.S. or Canada.

Survey results indicate operators remain confident, with nearly one-third planning to expand their fleets in the next five years.

Latin America

Latin America continues to host the world's second-largest business aviation fleet, supported primarily by strength in Brazil and Mexico. The region has steadily expanded over the past several years as infrastructure investments, economic development and growth in agriculture and natural-resource industries have increased demand for business aviation services.

The region accounts for approximately 14% of global deliveries and 15% of worldwide fleet size. Looking ahead, Honeywell Aerospace expects continued momentum as economic conditions improve and trade activity strengthens across the region. The recently advancing EU-Mercosur trade framework could further support business travel between South America and Europe while creating additional opportunities for operators serving international routes.

Latin America also exhibits some of the strongest fleet-expansion intentions captured in the survey, suggesting operators remain optimistic about long-term growth opportunities despite periodic economic volatility.

Europe

Europe presents a more complex but increasingly important part of the business aviation landscape. Although the region represents approximately 10% of the global fleet, it accounts for 13% of global flight activity, reflecting the importance of cross-border connectivity and high aircraft utilization rates.

The European region continues to benefit from strong leisure travel demand and increased interest in flexible aviation solutions. Fractional ownership has gained traction in recent years as operators seek alternatives that offer predictable access, privacy and reliability.

At the same time, regulatory pressure, sustainability requirements and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on growth. Nevertheless, operator sentiment remains positive, with many organizations indicating plans to expand fleet capacity as business aviation becomes an increasingly important complement to commercial air travel.

Rest of the world

Growth is increasingly being supported by changing regulations, improved access to aftermarket services and aircraft management businesses, and infrastructure investment.

Although the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has paused development and disrupted regional flight operations, the region remains a center for premium aviation services, with the United Arab Emirates serving as a leading global hub and Saudi Arabia investing heavily in aviation infrastructure.

In Asia-Pacific, India continues to expand through improved access models and supportive policy initiatives, while China remains focused on selective premium and fleet-renewal opportunities. Africa and Australia continue to contribute meaningful demand through mission-driven aviation, resource-sector activity and aftermarket support services.

This region generates the highest level of purchase interest among all surveyed, underscoring its long-term strategic importance for manufacturers and suppliers across the business aviation value chain.

Aircraft purchase decisions increasingly focus on performance, comfort and economics

Honeywell Aerospace research continues to show that aircraft buyers prioritize mission performance above all other considerations. Range, payload, speed and field performance remain the primary factors influencing purchasing decisions of operators across the globe. Beyond performance, operators place strong emphasis on cabin experience, cost, and customer support.

However, regional priorities vary. Latin American operators place greater emphasis on cost related drivers such as financing access, acquisition cost, and operating costs. European buyers demonstrate stronger consideration for cabin functionality and passenger comfort. Operators across the rest of the world prioritize brand-related attributes such as reputation and product experience when considering the purchase of a new aircraft.

Sustainability efforts center on practical solutions

Honeywell Aerospace’s research also explored operator views on sustainability and the perceived effectiveness of various emissions-reduction strategies.

Survey respondents identified fleet modernization as the most effective sustainability strategy, reflecting the significant efficiency gains delivered by newer aircraft designs. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) also remains a key area of interest, while operators continue to view asset-sharing models and higher aircraft utilization as practical ways to improve efficiency.

Overall, the findings suggest that business aviation's sustainability strategy will continue to be driven by technology adoption, fleet renewal and SAF availability, enabling operators to reduce emissions while maintaining the productivity, flexibility and access that define the sector.

Methodology

Honeywell Aerospace’s forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including macroeconomic and market analyses, original equipment manufacturers’ production and development plans shared with the company, expert deliberations with aerospace industry leaders and detailed analysis of Cirium, WingX, and Jetnet industry data.

Honeywell Aerospace, in partnership with Seefeld Group and Ad Hoc Research, also gathers direct feedback from business aviation operators worldwide through the Buyer Expectations Survey. The 2026 BuyerEx survey reached 306 nonfractional operators representing a fleet of 1,558 business aircraft worldwide. The survey sample is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition. This comprehensive approach provides Honeywell Aerospace with unique insights into operator sentiments, preferences and concerns and provides considerable intelligence on product development needs and opportunities.

Operators’ participation in surveys such as BuyerEx is imperative because their direct feedback on aircraft and operational requirements enables industry stakeholders to develop the products, services, and solutions that are most aligned with and supportive of their evolving needs.

Making an impact on business decisions

Honeywell Aerospace’s Global Business Aviation Outlook reflects current operator concerns and identifies longer-cycle trends that Honeywell Aerospace uses in its own product decision process. The survey has helped to identify opportunities for investments in sustainability solutions, enhance aircraft connectivity offerings, and expand propulsion offerings, innovative safety products, services and upgrades. The survey informs Honeywell Aerospace’s business pursuit strategy and helps consistently position the company on high-value platforms in growth sectors.