Tariffs and Trade Wars: What to Expect in 2025

Estimated reading time: 1 minute

James Kim is an international trade lawyer at ArentFox Schiff who keeps his thumb on the pulse of customs enforcement and import compliance. With a new administration taking over just days from now, James weighs in on the potential risks of international tariffs, some possible workarounds, and why this topic should be No. 1 on your list of concerns.

Marcy LaRont: James, with a new administration, there has been a lot of talk about tariffs. What do you expect?

James Kim: Speculation is rampant, something we saw with Donald Trump’s first term. He would make off-the-cuff remarks or threaten some sort of tariff action. Sometimes, it played out that way, but a lot of times, it didn’t.

Last time, he talked about imposing high tariffs on Mexican products for the same reasons he's proposing them now. His aim is to clamp down on illegal immigration and drug smuggling. Ultimately, he backed off last time from his original proposal because he was satisfied with what Mexico said it would do to address those concerns. This time he says there are major problems with illegal immigration, and he wants to shut down the border until Mexico does something about it. He’s also suggesting a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico.

He's now throwing a tariff proposal against Canada. So, we can predict something will happen. He's promised he will initiate the tariff process on Canada and Mexico as soon as he enters office. He's talked a lot about China so I would expect some action to be taken there.

We don’t know how long those tariffs will last, but we know that Trump uses them as a negotiating tactic to get these countries to make certain trade concessions and for other foreign policy aims that have nothing to do with the products on which the tariffs are being imposed. I would expect the same this time around.