Global NEV Sales to Grow 14% in 2026; USMCA Renegotiation Poses Critical Risk to Auto Industry

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TrendForce’s latest findings have revealed that global sales of NEVs, including BEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs, reached 20.53 million units in 2025, up 26% YoY. 

Growth is expected to moderate in 2026. With China’s market expansion slowing, global NEV sales are projected to reach 23.4 million units, representing a reduced growth rate of 14% YoY.

China accounted for approximately 66% of global NEV sales in 2025. However, its annual growth slowed to 24% due to a high comparison base, putting it slightly below the global average.

Western Europe, in contrast, recorded nearly 30% YoY growth, marking its strongest performance since 2022.

BYD (brand) surpasses Tesla to lead global BEV sales in 2025

In the 2025 BEV rankings, BYD (brand) posted approximately 25% YoY growth, overtaking Tesla to claim the top position. 

Tesla experienced an estimated 9% annual decline, reflecting limited momentum in product refreshes. SAIC-GM-Wuling maintained third place, while Geely climbed to fourth, driven by strong demand for its sub-CNY 100,000 Xingyuan model. Geely’s market share surged from 3% to 6%. 

Xiaomi also saw rapid gains, doubling its share from 1% to 3% to rank eighth.

Although Volkswagen recorded overall sales growth, continued weakness in China led to a decline in ranking and market share. In an effort to reposition itself, Volkswagen launched its China-focused sub-brand ID.UNYX and deepened collaboration with Xpeng. Jointly developed models will enter the market in 1Q26, marking a strategic reset in China.

Geely rises to no.2 in the PHEV segment on Galaxy Series strength

In the PHEV segment, BYD maintained leadership with approximately 31.5% market share in 2025. However, it recorded its first decline in both sales volume and share, while group-level share stood at around 36%.

Geely advanced to second place with 6.3% share, supported by its Galaxy lineup. Both BYD and Geely, as large automotive groups, benefit from strong cost control and advantages in resource integration. 

By contrast, Li Auto, the 2024 runner-up, faced intensified competition in China and slower overseas expansion. Its 2025 sales fell approximately 30%, dropping to fifth place. The company is ramping up investment in AI-driven vehicle technologies to regain competitiveness.

TrendForce highlights significant policy changes across major markets in 2026:

• China is shifting subsidies from fixed-amount incentives to price-based percentages, potentially disadvantaging lower-priced models.
• The United States will no longer provide federal EV subsidies.
• Germany has reinstated subsidies without country-of-origin restrictions, which may benefit Chinese-made EVs.

A key inflection point will arrive on July 1, when renewal negotiations for the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) reach a critical stage. The U.S. is widely expected to push for revised terms. If Washington ultimately opts for an aggressive withdrawal, cross-border logistics costs would surge, disrupt established production efficiencies, and significantly weaken the long-term competitiveness of the North American automotive supply chain.

EVs, given their high degree of intelligent system integration, require substantial volumes of high-capacity, high-bandwidth memory. As a result, the segment is particularly exposed to memory price increases and supply volatility.
However, memory accounts for only 1–5% of total vehicle material costs. Amid intensifying competition in smart vehicle capabilities, automakers are prioritizing supply stability to ensure timely product launches and continuous feature upgrades.