-
-
News
News Highlights
- Books
Featured Books
- smt007 Magazine
Latest Issues
Current IssueWhat's Your Sweet Spot?
Are you in a niche that’s growing or shrinking? Is it time to reassess and refocus? We spotlight companies thriving by redefining or reinforcing their niche. What are their insights?
Moving Forward With Confidence
In this issue, we focus on sales and quoting, workforce training, new IPC leadership in the U.S. and Canada, the effects of tariffs, CFX standards, and much more—all designed to provide perspective as you move through the cloud bank of today's shifting economic market.
Intelligent Test and Inspection
Are you ready to explore the cutting-edge advancements shaping the electronics manufacturing industry? The May 2025 issue of SMT007 Magazine is packed with insights, innovations, and expert perspectives that you won’t want to miss.
- Articles
- Columns
- Links
- Media kit
||| MENU - smt007 Magazine
U.S. Tariffs to Curb Investment and Consumption Momentum; 2025 Global End-Market Outlook Downgraded
April 8, 2025 | TrendForceEstimated reading time: 2 minutes
On April 2nd, the U.S. announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs, followed by a provision allowing exemption for goods with more than 20% “U.S. value”. TrendForce’s latest observations reveal that the lack of macroeconomic improvement since 2024, coupled with the inflationary and recessionary risks posed by these new tariffs, has prompted a downward revision of the 2025 shipment outlook for several end-device markets—including AI servers, servers, smartphones, and notebooks.
Stronger-than-expected shipments of servers, smartphones, and notebooks in 1Q25 were largely driven by brands advancing shipments to the U.S. ahead of the new tariff implementation. TrendForce notes that supply chain players are still evaluating how to absorb increased production costs. Whether U.S. value will be assessed based on brand nationality or manufacturing origin remains a key point of concern for the industry.
TrendForce presents two revised forecast scenarios: In the base case, the 20% U.S. value is interpreted as brand-based—meaning American brands are more likely to secure exemptions for complete systems or finished products. In the worst case, retaliatory tariffs from other countries escalate the trade war, and the U.S. value is defined strictly based on the manufacturing location, which significantly increases the risk of market contraction.
In the AI server segment, the base case assumes partial tariff relief through the U.S. value exemption, while Mexico—being excluded from the tariff list—remains a strategic re-export hub for ODMs serving U.S. clients under the USMCA agreement. However, ongoing political and economic uncertainty may cause OEMs and CSPs to adopt a more cautious procurement approach. Consequently, TrendForce has slightly lowered its 2025 AI server shipment growth forecast to 24.5% YoY.
Under the worst case, escalating tariffs could trigger global inflation and erode consumer spending power. This would likely lead CSPs and OEMs to further delay investments in AI servers, reducing the annual shipment growth rate to around 18%.
For the server segment, pressures from U.S. tariffs are expected to constrain corporate CapEx, leading to more conservative IT budgets in the second half of 2025. Full-year server shipment growth forecast is thus trimmed to 5.4%. In the worst case, the global supply chain would face higher costs and investment hesitancy if tariffs expand to include semiconductors and core computing components, driving server shipment growth down to 2%.
TrendForce also notes that a more lenient interpretation of the 20% U.S. value rule would allow mid- to high-end smartphones to qualify for exemptions, whereas low-end or entry-level models may still be impacted. Amid widespread consumer uncertainty, value-for-money purchases will become more prominent. In the base case, 2025 global smartphone production is projected to be flat YoY. In the worst case, production may decline by 5% YoY.
PC OEMs began pulling forward shipments to the U.S. as early as 4Q24 in preparation for potential tariffs. After the announcement on April 2nd, U.S. brands with established assembly operations in Southeast Asia continued shipping as planned, while non-U.S. brands adopted a wait-and-see approach. With macroeconomic uncertainty expected to suppress both consumer and commercial upgrade demand, TrendForce now forecasts 2025 global notebook ODM shipment growth to slow to 3% under the base case and to 2% in the worst case.
Suggested Items
PCBAA Wins Summit Silver Award from the American Society of Association Executives
07/18/2025 | PCBAAPCBAA was one of 38 associations that earned Silver Awards for outstanding contributions for an entry titled: Chips Don’t Float: More Printed Circuit Boards Must be Made in America.
INSPECTIS AB ‘Makes it a Meal’ with Series U50s Advanced Kit
07/18/2025 | INSPECTIS ABFamous chefs the world over maintain that an entrée doesn’t make a great meal without side dishes. At INSPECTIS, we call those ‘sides’ an Advanced Kit.
July 2025 PCB007 Magazine: Sales—From Pitch to PO
07/18/2025 |Though all parts of a company are essential for holistic success, it is a foundational truth that a company lives and dies by its sales. If there are no sales, the company eventually ceases to exist, or as Henry Ford says, “Nothing happens until someone sells something.” In the July issue of PCB007 Magazine, we break down the sales stack and provide a guide to up your sales game.
Silicon Mountain Contract Services Enhances SMT Capabilities with New HELLER Reflow Oven
07/17/2025 | Silicon Mountain Contract ServicesSilicon Mountain Contract Services, a leading provider of custom electronics manufacturing solutions, is proud to announce a significant upgrade to its SMT production capability with the addition of a HELLER 2043 MK5 10‑zone reflow oven to its Nampa facility.
KONIG Launches KP400: Advanced 3D Digital Conformal Coating System for High-Density Electronics
07/15/2025 | KONIGKONIG, a leader in electronic packaging protection solutions, is proud to announce the launch of the KP400 3D Digital Packaging Solution—a breakthrough conformal coating system that brings new levels of precision, speed, and material efficiency to electronics manufacturing.