IDC Adjusts PC and Tablet Forecasts but Still Expects Commercial Demand to Provide Growth

Estimated reading time: 1 minute

In the wake of the USA’s tariffs on China as well as a weakening market sentiment, mostly in the consumer space, IDC has reduced its traditional PC forecast in 2025 and beyond. Global PC volume is now expected to reach 273 million in 2025, still growing +3.7% over the prior year though this is a slight reduction from the prior forecast. Beyond 2025, IDC forecasts sub 1% growth each year through 2029 for the traditional PC market, due in part from volume stabilization following Windows 11 migration. Meanwhile, tablets are not expected to fare much better as shipments are anticipated to shrink 0.8% in 2025 to 143.3 million and the market faces a slight gradual decline, reaching 141.6 million units by the end of 2029 due mostly to consumer saturation.

“Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “However, the weakness amongst consumer demand is universal as macro issues persist. There are still some silver linings though: workstation volume should remain healthy, along with near-term tablet demand in China boosted by consumer subsidies.”

In addition to form factor-specific trends, the commercial space will be the main driver for the gains in 2025. Commercial PC volume (including Education PCs) grew 2% in 2024, driven by some large deals and modest Windows 11 migration volume. As shown in the table below, IDC expects commercial and school renewal projects to be the biggest driver for 2025. In keeping with past Windows PC refresh cycles, IDC expects firms to largely continue Windows 11 PC purchases through 2025, although budgets and other constraints will leave some to choose in-place upgrades or pay for extended Windows 10 support. AI PC purchases have faced hurdles since their launch, but IDC expects a more robust ecosystem to emerge by latter 2025, leading most new PCs to be GenAI-capable by 2026.

“In light of so many challenges around the world, Japan is a much-needed source of double-digit growth this year. Enterprises there as well as SMBs have been quickly replacing PCs in advance of the Windows 10 End Of Service in October,” says Bryan Ma, vice president of Devices Research. “Growth rates naturally come down next year, but at least there is still a large education project to absorb some of the landing.”